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Michigan
Polls
Suggest
a
Democratic
Advantage,
but the
Outcome
Remains
Uncertain
Walter
Hargrove
-
Political
Analyst
Tell Us
Detroit
News
Bureau
DETROIT
-
Michigan
enters
Election
Day with
polls
showing
Democrats
positioned
to win
the
state’s
marquee
contests,
led by
Abdul
El-Sayed’s
advantage
over
Republican
Mike
Rogers
in the
open
U.S.
Senate
race.
The
final
Detroit
News/WDIV
survey
put
El-Sayed
at 51.4
percent
and
Rogers
at 45.1
percent
among
likely
voters,
a
roughly
6-point
lead
with a
4-point
margin
of
error.
The
Senate
contest
has
become
one of
the most
closely
watched
races
nationally
because
Michigan’s
open
seat
could
help
determine
control
of a
chamber
Republicans
currently
hold, 53
to 47. A
final
New York
Times/Siena
poll
released
the day
before
the
election
showed
an even
wider
El-Sayed
lead, 53
percent
to 42
percent,
placing
the
Democrat
in
double-digit
territory.
Polling
also
suggests
El-Sayed
has
improved
among
voters
who were
initially
skeptical.
He now
leads
among
independents,
45.5
percent
to 40
percent,
and
holds
strong
support
among
younger
voters,
including
more
than 77
percent
of
likely
voters
under
30.
Rogers
retains
an edge
among
seniors
and
voters
ages 40
to 49,
while
El-Sayed’s
advantage
is
concentrated
among
women
and
Metro
Detroit
voters.
The same
Detroit
News/WDIV
poll
found
Democrats
leading
outside
the
margin
of error
in the
races
for
governor,
attorney
general,
and
secretary
of
state.
The
governor’s
race
pits
Democratic
Secretary
of State
Jocelyn
Benson
against
Republican
U.S.
Rep.
John
James to
succeed
term-limited
Gov.
Gretchen
Whitmer.
The
governor’s
race is
viewed
as
leaning
Democratic,
while
several
competitive
U.S.
House
contests
across
Michigan
remain
harder
to
predict.
The
state’s
legislative
races
and two
statewide
ballot
proposals,
one
involving
a
constitutional
convention
and one
involving
campaign-finance
restrictions,
add
further
uncertainty
to the
overall
outcome.
President
Donald
Trump’s
standing
appears
to be a
major
factor.
In the
Detroit
News/WDIV
survey,
59
percent
of
likely
Michigan
voters
disapproved
of his
job
performance,
compared
with 39
percent
who
approved.
Respondents
also
broadly
disapproved
of his
handling
of the
Iran war
and
U.S.-Canada
relations.
Pollster
Bernie
Czuba
said
El-Sayed
was
winning
83
percent
of Trump
disapprovers,
while
Rogers
captured
92
percent
of Trump
approvers,
leaving
Rogers
with too
narrow a
base if
the
president’s
approval
remains
low. The
survey
also
found
the
economy
was a
leading
issue
for
voters
choosing
between
the
Senate
candidates.
Despite
the
polling
advantage,
Michigan’s
history
as a
narrowly
divided
battleground
means
the
results
are not
predetermined.
Trump
carried
the
state by
1.4
points
in 2024.
The
final
Detroit
News/WDIV
survey
still
found
3.6
percent
undecided
in the
Senate
race,
and El-Sayed’s
lead
narrowed
to 4.2
points
among
voters
who said
they
would
definitely
vote.
Polls
close at
8 p.m.
Eastern
time,
with the
first
statewide
results
expected
after 1
a.m.
Whether
the
surveys’
Democratic
tilt
holds
will
depend
heavily
on
turnout,
late-deciding
voters,
and
performance
in
competitive
House
and
legislative
districts.
This
Tell Us
USA News
Network
report
is
produced
in part
by Ai
and can
make
mistakes.
Please
contact
and let
us know
of any
errors
you may
find.
info@tellususa.com
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