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What's
behind
the
growth
slump?
Takeaways
from
census
data
By
NICHOLAS
RICCARDI
and
MIKE
SCHNEIDER
apnews.com
WASHINGTON
DC - The
first
batch of
once-every-decade
data
from the
U.S.
Census
Bureau
shows a
United
States
that is
growing
less
quickly
and but
still
seeing
its
population
shift to
the
South
and the
West.
The
data
released
Monday
was
relatively
basic —
containing
national
and
state-level
population
figures
and
details
of how
they
affect
states’
representation
in
Congress.
Still,
it
contained
some
surprises
and
pointed
to some
consequential
trends.
Five
takeaways
from the
new
census
data:
MORE
SLUGGISH
GROWTH
AHEAD?
The
U.S.
population
grew to
331
million,
a 7.4%
growth
rate
from the
last
time the
Census
Bureau
counted
every
person
in the
country,
in 2010.
Those
may
sound
like big
numbers,
but it’s
actually
the
second
slowest
rate of
population
growth
the
census
has ever
recorded,
just
behind
the 7.3%
growth
in the
1930s.
That
decade’s
slowed
growth
was
rooted
in the
Great
Depression.
Our past
decade’s
sluggish
rate had
similar
beginnings
in the
long
shadow
of the
Great
Recession.
The
drawn-out
recovery
saw many
young
adults
struggling
to enter
the job
market,
delaying
marriage
and
starting
a
family.
That
dealt a
blow to
the
nation’s
birthrate.
Then the
pandemic
hit last
year and
made
matters
worse.
But
while
U.S.
population
growth
recovered
after
the
Great
Depression,
demographers
are not
optimistic
it will
pick up
anytime
soon.
Most
forecast
even
slower
population
growth
in the
decades
to come.
Americans
are
getting
older —
the
median
age in
the U.S.
is 38,
up one
year
from 37
in 2010.
Immigration
had been
dropping
even
before
the
pandemic
effectively
shut it
down.
And many
Republicans
have
largely
turned
against
the idea
of
immigration,
legal or
illegal,
a new
political
barrier
to the
country
adding
more
population
quickly.
“Unlike
the
Great
Depression,
it’s
part of
a
process
where
we’re
likely
to keep
having
slow
growth,”
said
William
Frey, a
demographer
at the
Brookings
Institution
in
Washington,
D.C.
That
has
potentially
grim
consequences
for the
nation’s
future.
“The big
demographic
advantage
the U.S.
once
enjoyed
over
other
rich
nations
has
evaporated,”
John
Lettieri,
president
of the
Economic
Innovation
Group,
tweeted
after
the
census
data
release.
“Now
there
are more
Americans
80 and
older
than 2
or
younger.”
THE
GREAT
MIGRATION
CONTINUES
The
U.S.
population
may be
growing
more
slowly,
but it
continued
its
80-year-long
trend of
shifting
to the
South
and the
West.
Florida,
Montana
and
North
Carolina
each saw
enough
growth
to add a
congressional
seat,
while
booming
Texas
gained
two.
Colorado
and
Oregon
also
gained
new
seats,
while
Michigan,
New York
and
Pennsylvania
lost
seats.
The
snapshot
tells a
familiar
story:
Americans
have
moved
out of
the
industrial
Midwest
and
Northeast,
chasing
jobs,
more
affordable
housing,
growing
new
suburbs
and
vibrant
cities.
But,
strikingly,
the
longtime
symbol
of
Americans’
search
for the
new and
the next
wasn’t
part of
that
story.
California’s
growth
rate
wasn’t
enough
to
retain
its
53-seat
delegation
in the
House.
The
nation’s
most
populous
state
lost a
congressional
seat for
the
first
time in
its
history,
a fact
that is
already
forcing
debate
over
whether
Democrats’
control
of state
government
is to
blame.
GOOD
NEWS FOR
THE GOP
— FOR
NOW
Those
population
changes
will be
quickly
translated
into
political
shifts.
The
census
data
officially
kicked
off the
redistricting
process,
in which
states
will
redraw
congressional
and
statehouse
districts
to
adjust
for the
new
headcounts.
The
news
Monday
was
generally
good for
Republicans.
They
control
the
redistricting
process
in
Florida,
North
Carolina
and
Texas,
which
account
for four
of the
seven
new
seats.
The
two
Democratic
states
that
gain
seats —
Colorado
and
Oregon —
won’t
give
that
power to
their
Democratically
controlled
legislatures.
In
Oregon,
Democrats
have
agreed
to give
GOP
lawmakers
equal
say in
exchange
for a
pledge
not to
hold up
other
legislation.
And
Colorado’s
voters
took the
drawing
of
district
lines
away
from
state
lawmakers
and gave
it to a
nonpartisan
commission.
The
new
seats
are only
part of
the
often
cutthroat
redistricting
fight.
As soon
as
August,
the
Census
Bureau
is
expected
to
release
detailed
information
showing,
down to
the
block,
where
almost
every
person
lives.
New
legislative
maps
will be
redrawn
in each
state to
ensure
equal
representation.
But one
party
can gain
advantage
by
packing
rivals
into a
single
district,
or
spreading
them out
so that
they can
never
win an
election.
Right
now, the
GOP
controls
more
statehouses
overall
and has
an edge
in
growing
states.
Republicans
only
need to
net a
handful
of seats
to win
control
of the
U.S.
House.
“I
think
Republicans,
when all
this is
done,
will be
in great
shape to
retake
the
House
majority
in
2022,”
said
Adam
Kincaid,
executive
director
of the
National
Republican
Redistricting
Trust,
which is
coordinating
the GOP
redistricting
push.
But
there
will be
limits.
Many of
the new
residents
of those
states
are
young
and
voters
of
color,
groups
that
lean
strongly
Democratic.
It may
be hard
for
Republicans
to
maintain
their
edge for
much of
the
decade,
regardless
of how
they
draw
their
lines.
TROUBLE
COUNTING
LATINOS?
In
fact,
the
process
was
expected
to go
even
better
for the
GOP.
Texas
and
Florida
were
each
expected
to gain
a seat,
as was
Arizona.
Those
shortfalls
were a
shocker
for
demographers,
and
there
were so
few
details
in the
data it
was hard
to
understand
what
happened.
One
possibility
is that
Latinos
weren’t
properly
counted.
Latinos
make up
a large
segment
of the
population
in the
three
states
that
didn’t
gain
expected
seats.
Trump
unsuccessfully
pushed
to add a
citizenship
question
to the
census,
sparking
allegations
that he
hoped to
intimidate
Latinos
from
participating
in the
process.
The
actual
count
started
during
the
coronavirus
pandemic
when it
was
especially
hard to
reach
certain
populations.
It
may be
that the
gap
between
expected
gains
and
actual
ones is
the
first
sign of
a
Hispanic
undercount.
But it’s
too soon
to tell
without
the more
detailed
data due
out in
the
fall.
“The
initial
results
are
surprising
enough
that
once
more
details
are
released,
we will
be able
to
better
determine
to what
extent
the
Latino
population
was
fairly
and
accurately
counted,”
said
Arturo
Vargas,
president
of the
National
Association
of
Latino
Elected
and
Appointed
Officials.
Thomas
Saenz,
president
of the
Mexican-American
Legal
Defense
and
Education
Fund,
said he
wasn’t
ready to
“sound
the
alarm”
about an
undercount
yet,
noting
that
growth
among
Latinos
may have
helped
New York
avoid
losing a
second
House
seat.
A GAME
OF
INCHES
This
census
count
was a
tough
one for
New
York.
Growth
has been
slowing
for
years
and
there’s
been a
particular
exodus
of
people
from its
upstate
region
north
and west
of New
York
City.
But,
during a
Monday
news
conference,
Census
Bureau
officials
revealed
the
state
was 89
people
short of
dodging
the
demographic
bullet
of
losing a
congressional
seat.
Congressional
reapportionment
is a
zero-sum
game,
with
states
divvying
up the
435
House
seats
based on
population.
Minnesota
barely
edged
out New
York to
avoid
being
the last
state to
lose a
seat. If
New York
had
counted
89 more
residents,
and all
other
states
stayed
the
same,
the
state
would
have
kept its
seat and
Minnesota
would
have
lost
one.
Minnesota,
which
had the
nation’s
highest
self-response
rate,
also
secured
the last
House
seat in
2010.
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